According to Savills latest research, the average shopping centre provision per 1,000 inhabitants amounts to approx 210 sq m and is below EU-27 average. This, combined with forecast rising retail sales, increasing consumer credit and higher employment, will attract development in major agglomerations Savills says.
The international real estate advisor predicts that developers will focus on larger projects in major agglomerations rather than smaller convenience centres, as well as medium-size cities and smaller towns where projects will range between 8,000 sq m to 25,000 sq m. Prime rents in Warsaw’s centres average €60 sq m/month and €40-55 sq m/month in other major regional cities with signs of positive rental growth having been observed in major cities undergoing re-commercialisation.
Brian Burgess, head of Savills Poland, says: “Rising retail sales, increasing consumer credit and higher employment all combine to support an improvement in demand for retail floorspace throughout Poland in 2011. This will encourage developer activity in selected locations, albeit limited to the main agglomerations which already account for 60% of stock.”
Savills finds that demand for shopping centre floorspace is reflected in vacancy rates which sit below 5%. Although retailers have been cautious about expansion plans since 2008, the situation is improving and prime shopping centre landlords are finding themselves with waiting lists for existing units.
Magorzata Gadomska, of Savills Poland’s retail agency, adds: “Poland’s GDP has remained positive throughout 2009 and average growth in salaries over 10 years has been recorded at rates higher than inflation. The outlook is good with positive forecasts for spending over the final quarter boosted by Christmas expenditure. Developers will be keen to target the major agglomerations but continue to be more cautious about weaker locations.”