Serviced Apartment performance is highly correlated to FDI. With borders closed and many expatriates home, then short term performance is suffering. Some owners are using the time wisely, to reposition their assets and heighten competitiveness.
COVID freezes performance
The pandemic has severely disrupted business, early travelling restrictions affected Tourism and Hospitality first. To limit infections and protect key long-term tenants, most Serviced Apartment projects have refused short-term tenants since February, occupancy has fallen significantly. In HCMC, average occupancy declined -20 ppts QoQ and -17ppts YoY. Average rents represented by longer term contracts, were down -2% QoQ and YoY. Grade B had the sharpest decrease of -3% QoQ when larger scale operators offered up to 15% monthly rent discounts.
Crisis response
In Q1, the travel ban resulted in a sharp decline in new bookings and increased overseas cancellations. Short stays fell away in March, with reservations and longer-term contracts delayed or cancelled. Extensive crisis management by businesses has led to less than 50% occupancy in most active projects. Since March, the HCMC Department of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs has put new labor permits on hold for foreign workers. The Ministry of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA), as of in March 2020 confirmed 68,000 foreigners work in Vietnam, of which 37% that are under travel restrictions have not returned.
Landlords and tenants are actively seeking pragmatic solutions. Many upscale projects focused on protecting existing tenants by suspending short-term leases. In the lower Grades, rent reductions were introduced together with extended payment schedules, easier cancellation policies and agreements on the future of rent reviews. Chains such as Somerset, Glenwood, and Thien Son offered up to 10% discounts. Others such as Sherwood and City House have limited new contracts and retained units for longer term tenants until they return.
Project regulations to protect occupiers include:
- Body temperatures: Anyone above 37.5 degrees C will be announced, and all unit related occupants otentially quarantined.
- Occupiers must wear face masks in public areas and upon building entry.
- Social distancing, keeping two meters from others when queuing for check-in, etc.
Short term struggles
Serviced apartment demand is expected to fall across all Grades. In Q1/2020, there were 3.7 million international visitors, down -18% YoY. Airlines have been hit hard by travel restrictions. When the shutdown started 1st April, all international flights were cancelled and domestic travelling curtailed.
According to the UNWTO, global international arrivals will fall up to -30 percent YoY in 2020. Previous crisis benchmarks for SARS in 2003 and the GFC in 2009, show Viet Nam had 8.0% less growth than the international average during each event. While the pandemic persists, international arrivals are expected to be very limited, continuing to affect short-term Serviced Apartment demand.
In addition to decreasing demand, is the increasing pressure from buy-to-let apartments. The total Grade A and B apartments handed over from 2018 to 2022 is greater than 50,000. Up to 30% are likely to enter the rental market. In 2020, around 45% of the identified future stock will enter. This pipeline is expected to hold off their launches. Recently there was a trend to convert Grade C apartments to offices.
There is a positive amongst all the gloom. Vietnam’s rapid and much lauded ‘prevention over cure’ response has helped mitigate economic risks and increased expectations of an early recovery. HCMC remains an attractive FDI destination and as national economic hub, has the largest expat population in Vietnam.