Savills

Publication

Tokyo Residential Leasing Q2/2024

Stable performance with bright prospects

Strong migration trends should bring about further improvements.

  • Average rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) corrected marginally by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to JPY4,229 per sq m, although sit 4.8% higher on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
  • On the other hand, rents in the central five wards (C5W) increased by 0.7% QoQ and 5.5% YoY to JPY5,063 per sq m.
  • The C5W rental premium over the 23W average increased moderately to 19.2%.
  • In the C5W, Shinjuku, Minato, and Chuo saw the most significant quarterly increases of 2.2%, 1.7% and 1.0%, respectively, while rents in Shibuya contracted by 1.8% QoQ. Overall, yearly growth among all wards in the C5W continues to perform well.
  • Average rents for smaller units in the C5W in the 15-30 sq m size band increased at the largest rate in consecutive quarters, by 0.8% QoQ, while average rents for larger units in the 45-60 sq m size band decreased by 1.3% QoQ, indicating that proximity and access are becoming greater priorities.
  • Average occupancy rates in the 23W loosened by 1.0 percentage points (ppts) QoQ to 96.2%, while falling marginally by 0.4ppts on an annual basis. Occupancy in the C5W also loosened moderately by 0.8ppts QoQ to 96.1%.
  • Tokyo prefecture’s population has grown between 2019 and 2024, with foreign nationals comprising a greater proportion of new entrants.

Following the strong rental growth in the previous quarter, the 23W market posted a marginal quarterly rental correction, while the C5W experienced moderate rental growth in Q2/2024. This spring moving season brought a large net increment of over 65,000 people to the Tokyo 23W, while increasing office attendance and recent robust wage growth should also contribute to strong and stable rental demand.

Savills Research & Consultancy