Savills

Publication

Tokyo Residential Leasing Q3/2024

Strong fundamentals drive momentum

Rents and net migration continue to perform well backed by consistent wage growth.

  • Average rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) strengthened by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.9% year-on-year (YoY), reaching JPY4,278 per sq m.
  • Similarly, rents in the central five wards (C5W) increased by 1.5% QoQ and 5.2% YoY to JPY5,137 per sq m.
  • The C5W rental premium over the 23W average rose 0.3 percentage points (ppts) QoQ to 19.5%, slightly lower than the two preceding years.
  • In the C5W, Shinjuku saw the largest rental increment of 2.7% QoQ while Minato experienced a 0.9% QoQ correction. All other wards displayed quarterly increases, while annual rental growth was recorded across the entire C5W.
  • The smallest 15-30 sq m size band saw the largest increase of 2.5% QoQ, while units in the largest 45-60 sq m size band experienced a 0.3% QoQ contraction, narrowing the rental gap between larger and smaller units in Tokyo.
  • Average occupancy rates in the 23W stayed flat over the quarter at 96.2%, while the C5W saw a slight dip of 0.2ppts QoQ to 95.8%.
  • Japan’s branded residential market is expected to rapidly grow due to heightened demand from ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs), and evolving market dynamics.

The 23W residential market has extended its growth after a brief pause in the previous quarter, with most wards recording quarterly rental increments. Net migration into the 23W remains positive, and has surpassed historical records. Meanwhile, subdued supply and strong wage growth provide greater confidence for continued rental growth.

Savills Research & Consultancy