Savills

Publication

Japan Logistics - September 2025

Logistics sector adapting towards stability

  • In Greater Tokyo, vacancy continues to increase, rising 0.6 percentage points (ppts) year-on-year (YoY) to 9.6%. The rate of increase appears to be slowing and given the consistent decrease in new supply since 2023, vacancy is expected to slowly stabilise towards the end of the year.
  • In Greater Osaka, vacancy has risen by 0.4ppts YoY to 4.0%. New completions continue to see strong demand from tenants seeking new modern facilities.
  • Rents in Greater Tokyo declined by 1.7% half-year-on-half-year (HoH) and 4.1% YoY to JPY4,620 per tsubo.
  • Rents in Greater Osaka increased by 6.7% HoH and 9.8% YoY to JPY4,590 per tsubo, partly driven by new completions with elevated rents, and are almost reaching Greater Tokyo levels.
  • Investment levels* in the industrial sector reached a record high in 2024 and are 11% higher than 2023, driven by a handful of big-ticket transactions. Due to limited opportunities in 1H/2025, transaction levels are 42% lower than those of 1H/2024. However, several large-scale transactions continue to be observed over the first half of the year.
  • Nationwide new supply in 2025 is forecast to be on par with 2024. Greater Osaka will see record new supply, while Tokyo is expected to see a continued drop. Looking forward, new supply is expected to decrease further due to high construction and land costs.
  • Overall, the logistics sector remains stable, with demand remaining firm. The growing adoption of technologies to enhance efficiency and streamlined operations points to improving sentiment further in the industrial sector.

*Data centers are excluded from all figures.

The logistics sector has been resilient despite the large supply seen in recent years and is positioned for a brighter outlook as supply begins to ease. Investment sentiment remains strong, with high-value transactions making headlines over the first half of 2025. The anticipated slowing in new supply after 2025 will give the logistics market further momentum for absorption. Additionally, logistics operators have been incorporating new technologies to enhance operational efficiency to address labour shortages, further strengthening the sector’s resilience over the longer-term outlook.

Savills Research & Consultancy