Market in Minutes - the Netherlands - Q3 2025

Key findings:

1. Investment activity rebounds as investor confidence returns: Q3 2025 recorded €3.0 billion in transactional activity, up 17.3% YoY, as improved financing conditions lifted large-scale deals above €50 million to 53.8% of total volume. The residential (€1.1 billion, –26.1% YoY), office (€761.9 million, +161% YoY), and logistics (€631.6 million, +107.8% YoY) sectors led activity, supported by a resurgence of foreign capital, which accounted for 35.0% of total investment.
2. Yield stability signals renewed pricing alignment: Prime Net Initial Yields (NIYs) have stabilised across most sectors, with early signs of compression in logistics and residential real estate. The gap between prime and non-prime assets has widened to roughly 350 basis points, as investors favour assets with credible sustainability credentials and resilient occupier fundamentals.
3. Occupier activity rebounds across core sectors: Total market take-up reached approximately 1.3 million sq m in Q3 2025, up 42.7% QoQ. Office activity increased 7.8% YoY, driven by large transactions in the G5 cities, while logistics take-up declined 45.4% YoY amid selective expansion and a focus on core regions. Retail activity rose 67.1% QoQ, supported by resilient consumer spending and the growing importance of experience-led formats.
4. Inflation proves sticky, but rates stabilise: Dutch inflation continues to hover around 3.0%, while the ECB’s policy pause provides monetary stability. This has given investors greater confidence to underwrite transactions and price assets with improved certainty.
5. An optimistic market outlook, as stability improves: A stable interest rate environment and sustained occupier demand underpin moderate optimism for 2025. However, political uncertainty and tightening sustainability regulation continue to drive selectivity, with total investment volumes expected to reach between €11.5 and €12.5 billion by year-end.